Abstract
Detecting and monitoring forest cover change can enable understanding previous, current, and future conditions of the forest. The objectives of this research were to detect the forest cover change using multi-temporal satellite images, quantify the rate of change, to identify the proximate and underlying driving forces of forest cover change to develop a model, and predict the change in forest cover from 2018 to 2034 using Cellular Automata Simulation Model in Hugumburda Grakahsu National Forest Priority Area.
Satellite images of 1990, 2002, 2014, and 2018 were used to do the change detection analyzes. the household survey, key informant interview, and focus group discussion are used to collect the Socio-economic data. IMPACT Toolbox software and, Quantum GIS was used to analyze the data. Cellular Automata Simulation Model was used to predict future forest cover change. The result revealed that during the study period (1990-2002) and (2002-2018) forest coverage increased by 1815.30 ha (28.25%) and decreased by 727.56 ha (8.83) respectively. If the existing rate of forest cover change continue forest is predicted to decrease by 2,739.24 ha, (36.46%) of the existed forest in 2018 will be lost in 2034. The major proximate drivers of forest cover change in the study area are Overgrazing, Wood extraction, Crop activities, and Settlement expansion. Weak policy implementation, lack of strong institutional arrangement, high human population growth, socio-political & cultural factors, and urbanization are also the main underlining drivers in the study area. This study recommends applying Reduction Emission from Forest Degradation and Deforestation Plus and Participatory forest management to reduce the alarming rate of deforestation in the study area.
Keywords: QGIS, IMPACT Toolbox, Forest cover change Drives, Ethiopia
